{"markets":[{"id":"540816","question":"Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if  if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.\n\nOnly ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.\n\nAny form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution for a ceasefire will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.\n","category":"russia-ukraine ceasefire","outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","probability":53.5},{"name":"No","probability":46.5}],"volume":1618251.87,"end_date":"2026-07-31T12:00:00Z","active":true,"slug":"russia-ukraine-ceasefire-before-gta-vi-554","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/russia-ukraine-ceasefire-before-gta-vi-554"},{"id":"540817","question":"New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Rihanna officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.\n\nOfficially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.\n\nRe-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.\n\nThe resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.","category":"new rihanna album","outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","probability":58.5},{"name":"No","probability":41.5}],"volume":702454.27,"end_date":"2026-07-31T12:00:00Z","active":true,"slug":"new-rhianna-album-before-gta-vi-926","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/new-rhianna-album-before-gta-vi-926"},{"id":"540818","question":"New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Playboi Carti officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.\n\nOfficially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.\n\nRe-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.\n\nThe resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.","category":"new playboi carti album ","outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","probability":54.5},{"name":"No","probability":45.5}],"volume":730558.8,"end_date":"2026-07-31T12:00:00Z","active":true,"slug":"new-playboi-carti-album-before-gta-vi-421","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/new-playboi-carti-album-before-gta-vi-421"},{"id":"540819","question":"Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.\n\nThe resolution source for the return of Jesus will be a consensus of credible sources.","category":"jesus christ returns","outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","probability":48.5},{"name":"No","probability":51.5}],"volume":11136390.93,"end_date":"2026-07-31T12:00:00Z","active":true,"slug":"will-jesus-christ-return-before-gta-vi-665","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-before-gta-vi-665"},{"id":"540820","question":"Trump out as President before GTA VI?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald Trump ceases to be the President of the U.S. for any period of time before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.\n\nAn announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, will not count.\n\nThe resolution source for Trump leaving the presidency will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n","category":"trump out as president ","outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","probability":52.5},{"name":"No","probability":47.5}],"volume":618516.23,"end_date":"2026-07-31T12:00:00Z","active":true,"slug":"trump-out-as-president-before-gta-vi-846","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/trump-out-as-president-before-gta-vi-846"},{"id":"540843","question":"Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.\n\nAn announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source for China invading Taiwan will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be use\n","category":"china invades taiwan ","outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","probability":51.5},{"name":"No","probability":48.5}],"volume":1801092.15,"end_date":"2026-07-31T12:00:00Z","active":true,"slug":"will-china-invades-taiwan-before-gta-vi-716","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invades-taiwan-before-gta-vi-716"},{"id":"540844","question":"Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) has a final \"High\" price of $1,000,000 or higher before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.\n\nThe resolution source for Bitcoin is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT \"High\" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on \"1m\" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.\n\nPlease note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTCUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.","category":"bitcoin hits $1m","outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","probability":49.0},{"name":"No","probability":50.9}],"volume":4051546.43,"end_date":"2026-07-31T12:00:00Z","active":true,"slug":"will-bitcoin-hit-1m-before-gta-vi-872","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-hit-1m-before-gta-vi-872"},{"id":"540881","question":"GTA VI released before June 2026?","description":"This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"release\" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.","category":"","outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7},{"name":"No","probability":99.3}],"volume":13849687.49,"end_date":"2026-05-31T12:00:00Z","active":true,"slug":"gta-vi-released-before-june-2026","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/gta-vi-released-before-june-2026"},{"id":"544092","question":"Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?","description":"This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","category":"no prison time","outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","probability":39.2},{"name":"No","probability":60.8}],"volume":323100.2,"end_date":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","active":true,"slug":"will-harvey-weinstein-be-sentenced-to-no-prison-time","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-harvey-weinstein-be-sentenced-to-no-prison-time"},{"id":"544093","question":"Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?","description":"This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","category":"<5 years","outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","probability":5.6},{"name":"No","probability":94.4}],"volume":108737.68,"end_date":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","active":true,"slug":"will-harvey-weinstein-be-sentenced-to-less-than-5-years-in-prison","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-harvey-weinstein-be-sentenced-to-less-than-5-years-in-prison"},{"id":"544094","question":"Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?","description":"This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","category":"5-10 years","outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","probability":3.5},{"name":"No","probability":96.5}],"volume":62326.13,"end_date":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","active":true,"slug":"will-harvey-weinstein-be-sentenced-to-between-5-and-10-years-in-prison","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-harvey-weinstein-be-sentenced-to-between-5-and-10-years-in-prison"},{"id":"544095","question":"Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?","description":"This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","category":"10-20 years","outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","probability":14.1},{"name":"No","probability":85.9}],"volume":143136.25,"end_date":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","active":true,"slug":"will-harvey-weinstein-be-sentenced-to-between-10-and-20-years-in-prison","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-harvey-weinstein-be-sentenced-to-between-10-and-20-years-in-prison"},{"id":"544096","question":"Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?","description":"This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","category":"20-30 years","outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","probability":23.9},{"name":"No","probability":76.1}],"volume":182622.23,"end_date":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","active":true,"slug":"will-harvey-weinstein-be-sentenced-to-between-20-and-30-years-in-prison","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-harvey-weinstein-be-sentenced-to-between-20-and-30-years-in-prison"},{"id":"544097","question":"Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?","description":"This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThis market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to \"No Prison Time.\"\n\nIf the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.","category":"30+ years","outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","probability":10.4},{"name":"No","probability":89.6}],"volume":59798.77,"end_date":"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","active":true,"slug":"will-harvey-weinstein-be-sentenced-to-more-than-30-years-in-prison","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-harvey-weinstein-be-sentenced-to-more-than-30-years-in-prison"},{"id":"553824","question":"Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup based off the rules of the NHL.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the NHL.\n","category":"carolina hurricanes","outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","probability":23.5},{"name":"No","probability":76.5}],"volume":507327.08,"end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","active":true,"slug":"will-the-carolina-hurricanes-win-the-2026-nhl-stanley-cup","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-carolina-hurricanes-win-the-2026-nhl-stanley-cup"},{"id":"553826","question":"Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup based off the rules of the NHL.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the NHL.\n","category":"edmonton oilers","outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","probability":2.8},{"name":"No","probability":97.2}],"volume":765005.27,"end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","active":true,"slug":"will-the-edmonton-oilers-win-the-2026-nhl-stanley-cup","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-edmonton-oilers-win-the-2026-nhl-stanley-cup"},{"id":"553827","question":"Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup based off the rules of the NHL.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the NHL.\n","category":"dallas stars","outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","probability":4.7},{"name":"No","probability":95.3}],"volume":1440761.53,"end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","active":true,"slug":"will-the-dallas-stars-win-the-2026-nhl-stanley-cup","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-dallas-stars-win-the-2026-nhl-stanley-cup"},{"id":"553828","question":"Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup based off the rules of the NHL.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the NHL.\n","category":"colorado avalanche","outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","probability":27.7},{"name":"No","probability":72.4}],"volume":13853004.78,"end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","active":true,"slug":"will-the-colorado-avalanche-win-the-2026-nhl-stanley-cup","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-colorado-avalanche-win-the-2026-nhl-stanley-cup"},{"id":"553829","question":"Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup based off the rules of the NHL.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the NHL.\n","category":"vegas golden knights","outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","probability":4.2},{"name":"No","probability":95.8}],"volume":1682338.2,"end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","active":true,"slug":"will-the-vegas-golden-knights-win-the-2026-nhl-stanley-cup","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-vegas-golden-knights-win-the-2026-nhl-stanley-cup"},{"id":"553830","question":"Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup based off the rules of the NHL.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be information from the NHL.\n","category":"tampa bay lightning","outcomes":[{"name":"Yes","probability":9.0},{"name":"No","probability":91.0}],"volume":1850703.04,"end_date":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","active":true,"slug":"will-the-tampa-bay-lightning-win-the-2026-nhl-stanley-cup","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-tampa-bay-lightning-win-the-2026-nhl-stanley-cup"}],"count":20}